七侠五义

在日本政府部门和机构的2027财年预算申请中，防卫预算申请达到约8.9万亿日元；养老金、医疗等社会保障支出预计增加约3900亿日元，而根据日本内阁府今年7月发布的2026财年经济财政白皮书，由于中东局势带来输入性通胀压力，同时劳动力短缺等结构性问题持续存在，日本经济复苏仍面临多重挑战，潜在经济增长率仍处于较低水平。那么，日本政府要想扩大军费、增加民生支出，该如何获取资金？是否能持续进行，将有哪些风险？

中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府目前收支上的矛盾，短期内仍有拼凑的办法。总的来说，高市政府的态度就是不靠多借钱，而是靠砍优惠、砍补贴、挖闲钱、重新算账等这些办法来解决。

二 | 希望通过宽松的政策，加大国内投资和发展军工业的手段，把日本的潜在增长率抬上去，形成所谓先花钱，后靠经济增长把饼做大的剧本。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府这一套操作的本质有饮鸩止渴色彩，长期看风险很大。

三 |     PANAMA CITY -- Protesters blocked streets across Panama on Monday, demanding the government rescind a contract to continue copper mining in a biodiverse region.Teaching and construction unions led calls against the contract with environmentalists, saying continued development threatens forested land and crucial groundwater just 75 miles (120 kilometers) west of the capital, in the state of Colon.Across Panama City, peaceful protesters handed out fliers, but in some areas on the outskirts of the capital police met protesters with tear gas. In anticipation of the largest marches since a cost of living crisis last July, both the Department of Education and the University of Panama cancelled classes. The government used social media to highlight the “enormous contribution” the mine — Panama's largest private investment ever — makes to the country's economy.In March, Panama's legislature reached an agreement with Canadian mining company First Quantum, allowing its local subsidiary, Minera Panama, to continue operating a huge open-pit copper mine in central Panama for at least 20 more years. The mine was temporarily closed last year when talks between the government and First Quantum broke down over payments the government wanted to receive.Protests began after President Laurentino Cortizo signed off on that contract on Friday after it was approved by the congress.The president acted surreptitiously, according to Fernando Abrego, leader of Panama's Association of Teachers union. “The government decided this confrontation by quickly and expeditiously approving a contract they know is rejected by the people,” he said.Teachers were joined by construction workers, who are one of country's most powerful labor groups. “The people are in the streets in defense of sovereignty," said union leader Saúl Méndez, "in the face of a contract that cedes self-determination by devastating the environment to steal resources.”It is unclear how persuasive these arguments will prove against the economic boon of a single mining site that already brings in 3% of the nation’s gross domestic product. Minera Panama says the mine will employ thousands of Panamanians and that its shipments make 80% of the country's total exports.The new contract, initially slowed by labor disagreements, secures Panama at least $375 million a year from Minera Panama, over 10 times more than the previous deal. It represents one of the largest national mining contracts in a region where other countries like Costa Rica regulate the sector more stringently and El Salvador which banned metal mining in 2017. For teachers, however, Abrego said concession was not an option, and that the teachers' union would hold an assembly to plan their next actions. “We will remain in the streets,” he said.。第一，目前高市采取的替代性裁员设想都有画饼嫌疑。据测算，相关措施只能提供一两万亿日元左右的空间，和高达10万亿的支出相比是杯水车薪。

四 | 而且日本目前的经济发展前景并不明朗，高市能不能依靠经济增长来增加收入，也要画上一个问号。

五 | 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第二，可能进一步加剧日本的金融风险。日本目前债务余额占GDP的比重已经非常高，进一步减税和增加支出将严重影响日本政府还债能力，加剧日元的贬值压力。日元持续走弱会有推高物价、通胀等负面影响，加重日本经济出现系统性金融风险。

六 | 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第三，涉及日本民生的裁员压力。消费税是日本的年金、医疗和介护等重要的稳定财源，缺口如不能妥善填补，可能影响相关服务的可持续性。

七 | 食品消费税减税两年期满，自民党为了保住政权，很可能不敢再提增税，两年可能就会变成永久减收。由此社会保障最稳定的一块税基就被挖空了，进一步恶化日本民众的生活环境。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市政府现在最在意的不是长期风险，而是接下来2027年9月前后的自民党总裁选和2028年夏季的参院选。

八 | 近期多份民调显示，高市内阁的支持率明显下滑，所以她迫切需要通过减税来拉回中间选民，通过扩军支出取悦国内的右翼保守势力这一基本盘，稳住支持率，渡过总裁选和参议院选，把首相的板凳坐稳，把风险留给日本的未来。

九 | 倘若风险快要爆雷，那么顺滑下台走人也不失是一个办法。这进一步暴露以高市为首的日本右翼势力执迷于整军扩武、推动新军国主义，为满足政治私利，不惜损害日本民生和未来的真实面目。